Customer variables and provenance
Behind every equation are variables, and behind every variable is a market estimate. This page covers what a variable card shows, how to replace a market default with a number from the prospect, how confirmation differs from editing, and how the six provenance states tell a reader where each number came from.
Market estimates
The Market Estimates section on the product page lists every variable in your model. The header shows the total, for example Market Estimates (24), a search box lets you find a variable by name, and variables are grouped by type, such as Customer Variable (9). Each variable shows a low, typical and high value.
Expand a variable to see its full card:
- Description. What the variable represents and how it is typically retrieved, for example from accounts payable or the IT vendor spend ledger. This often includes guidance on confirming how the customer tracks the figure.
- Used in. The value drivers that rely on this variable. Changing one number can affect several drivers.
- Median. The representative value valueIQ uses as the default.
- Range. The low-to-high spread across real organisations.
- Confidence. How confident valueIQ is in the estimate, as a percentage. Orange marks moderate confidence and green marks high. Lower confidence usually means the data is sparse or highly variable, which is a cue to validate the number with the prospect.
- Sources. The research behind the estimate, with links. Some source content may sit behind paywalls.
- Why. The reasoning that ties the sources to the chosen median and range.
Editing a market estimate
Each market estimate has an Edit option. Use it when you have better information than the market default for the product as a whole. An edit on the product page propagates to all non-archived deals that can be estimated (those with a customer website or a company name). For a number that is true of one prospect only, edit the customer variable on the deal instead.
Per-deal customer variables
When you create a deal, valueIQ researches the prospect and builds a customer model that replaces market defaults with prospect-specific estimates, using the market values as priors. Each deal also carries a frozen copy of the value model and market values taken at creation, so its calculations stay stable if the product changes later.
Open the deal and find the Customer Model panel, which has Variables and Drivers tabs.
- Update a value. Variables tab, click the value cell, enter the new number, Save.
- Set confidence. In the same row, use the confidence control next to the value. The scale runs from 0 to 1.
- Add a source. Click the row to expand it and paste a URL or reference into the Sources field.
- Add a note. In the expanded row, use the Notes field to record how the customer tracks the figure or who confirmed it.
The Variables tab shows a source chip on each row. Chips reading user_input or customer-confirmed are confirmed values; market_estimate and calculated are defaults. The "Show confirmed only" toggle filters the list, and you can sort by the Confidence column to see where the model is weakest.
Confirming versus editing
Confirming a value is a distinct gesture from editing it. An edit changes the number. A confirmation stamps an attestation that the current number is right, and that attestation flows into the provenance badge and into how the business case presents the figure.
- From the deal page. Customer Model, Variables tab, variable row, Confirm value.
- From a shared business case. Open the story, click the variable, and choose Confirm value in the edit dialog. When you confirm as the seller, the confirmation is recorded as seller-attested. When an invited customer partner confirms, it is recorded as an authenticated customer confirmation.
To correct a confirmation, repeat the confirm gesture with the new value. Confirmations supersede one another and the full history is kept. There is no way to unconfirm a value back to nothing.
The seven provenance states
Every variable in a business case shows a badge with one of seven states. Hover over the badge for a plain-language explanation in the app.
| State | What it tells the reader |
|---|---|
| Market default | The value is the researched market estimate. Nobody has changed or confirmed it. |
| Derived | The value is calculated from other variables rather than entered directly. |
| Seller-set | The seller entered the value. |
| Estimated from comparables | The seller accepted a suggestion built from comparable companies. Only the seller's team sees this label; the buyer sees "Seller-set". See Estimate from comparables. |
| Seller-confirmed | The seller confirmed the current value with the Confirm value gesture. |
| Customer-explored | An invited customer has worked with the value in the shared business case. |
| Customer-confirmed | An invited customer confirmed the value from the shared business case. |
The states run from least to most defensible. A business case whose largest drivers rest on customer-confirmed variables holds up in front of an economic buyer; one built on market defaults invites the question "says who".
Estimated value and expected value
Each driver's equation, with the customer's values substituted in, produces a base value. Summed across the drivers that are both selected and valid for the deal, this is the deal's Estimated Value: what the drivers add up to before anyone adjusts for realism.
Two adjustments on each driver card turn that into a defensible number. Both run from 0 to 1.
- Attribution. The share of the KPI movement your product specifically causes. The app labels this Attribution estimate.
- Execution risk. The chance the value does not land. The app shows its complement as Realisation rate: the share of attributed value projected to arrive in year one given implementation and adoption. Realisation rate is one minus execution risk.
The per-driver impact is the base value multiplied by attribution, multiplied by one minus execution risk:
impact = base value × attribution × (1 − execution risk)
Summed across enabled drivers, this is the deal's Expected Value: the risk- and attribution-adjusted total, and the number to present. Expected Value is also the denominator for Value Capture, the share of created value you are charging for, calculated as price divided by expected value. The app labels this 'Value Capture %', shortened to 'Capture' where space is tight.
Never show Estimated Value on its own to a buyer. An unadjusted total reads as an inflated claim. Show it alongside Expected Value, or show Expected Value alone.